Health Information and Health Outcomes: An Application of the Regression Discontinuity Design to the 1995 UK Contraceptive Pill Scare Case

This paper provides a general formulation of the regression discontinuity (RD) design and shows its general applicability to many epidemiological problems. It then applies the RD method to estimate the effects of the 1995 pill scare in the UK, using individual birth records and aggregate monthly statistics. The results show that, following the announcement of the health warning on the “third generation” pill, conception rates increased by about 7%, with a 9% increase in abortion rates and a 6-7% rise in birth rates. No effect was found on still births, very low birth weight, sex ratios, or average birth weight. There is evidence of a slight increase in the rates of low birth weight births and multiple births and of a considerable reduction in the rate of births with congenital anomalies. Heterogeneity by mother’s age and social class is very pronounced, with most of the effects being experienced by women aged less than 25 and of lower socioeconomic status.